Chinese traders foretold a Trump win as Republican orders surged, yet fear a challenging future for China-US trade
analysis
BBy Bang Xiao
Topic:US Elections
Chinese President Xi Jinping was quick to congratulate Donald Trump on his election win. In 2016, he was one of the last world leaders to do so.
In the eastern Chinese city of Yiwu, known as the "world's supermarket", traders were cautiously optimistic yet wary as a wave of orders rolled in before the United States presidential election.
By reading between the lines of their sales figures, some Yiwu merchants sensed a Trump victory long before the final votes were tallied.
This phenomenon, known as the Yiwu Index — where surges in particular orders seem to mirror US political leanings — indicated a clear trend: bulk orders associated with Republican merchandise were flooding in, with barely a sign of demand for Democratic paraphernalia.
Trump merchandise is sold in Yiwu this year, where workers are concerned over his next presidency.
For many Yiwu sellers, this foreshadowed Trump's victory.
It was a bittersweet prediction. While it brought confidence in their intuition, it also made them apprehensive about what a Trump win would mean for China-US trade.
Merchants realise that while Trump's presidency could lead to a surge in demand for Chinese-manufactured goods from his supporters, his promises of harsher tariffs threaten their livelihoods.
Following the results, Chinese President Xi Jinping was quick to extend his congratulations to Trump.
The last time Trump won in 2016, he was among the last world leaders to do so.
In a carefully worded message, he underscored the importance of "peaceful coexistence" between the two nations.
"History tells us that both countries stand to gain from cooperation and lose from confrontation," Xi said in his message.
This approach reflects Beijing's ongoing strategy of cautiously softening its diplomatic tone, attempting to pave a path of cooperation while bracing for Trump's trade policies.
It suggests that despite Trump's pledge to amplify tariffs, China is willing to keep diplomatic channels open.
Xi's moderate tone is a shift from earlier trade war rhetoric, indicating a recognition of the challenging environment China may face under another Trump administration, which may affect industries from manufacturing to electric vehicles and digital platforms like TikTok.
China's nationalist optimism vs middle-class concerns
While Xi Jinping has navigated a Trump presidency before, many leaders in Beijing are unfamiliar with the president-elect.
Within China, public reaction to Trump's victory is polarised.
On one side, nationalist factions view Trump as an agent of America's own decline.
They even call the president-elect "nation-builder Trump" for China, indirectly facilitating Beijing's rise by diverting US focus inward.
For many Chinese nationalists, Trump's "America First" agenda weakens US influence globally, which they see as a boon to China's diplomatic and economic ambitions.
These individuals welcome the notion that Trump's policies could yield unintended advantages for China's standing on the world stage — a world Xi describes as "rising eastward and falling westward".
However, middle-class Chinese — especially those whose livelihoods depend on trade and manufacturing — see Trump's victory through a more troubling lens.
For this demographic, Trump's return signals a likely continuation of the economic strain that began with the 2018 trade war.
Tariffs have weighed heavily on businesses, pushing thousands of manufacturers in China's industrial hubs to either shutter or relocate production.
While some sought refuge in South-East Asia, their plans were disrupted by the COVID-19 pandemic, forcing many to reassess their strategies.
Facing a China-US trade war 2.0, these businesses are now confronting the prospect of enduring economic hardship without viable alternatives.
TikTok under renewed scrutiny
A second Trump administration also signals a sustained threat to China's technology sector, particularly digital platforms such as TikTok, a social media giant with about 150 million users in the US.
Trump tried to ban Chinese social media app TikTok when he was in the White House in 2020.
Despite bipartisan support in the US for restrictions on Chinese-owned tech, TikTok's ownership and operational future are more uncertain than ever.
With Republicans likely holding the majority in both chambers of Congress, the legislative groundwork is in place for ongoing scrutiny.
The founder of TikTok and China's wealthiest person, Zhang Yiming, has become a symbol of China's digital influence abroad.
His platform embodies China's technological ambitions but also evokes US fears regarding data privacy, security, and influence.
Zhang's position highlights the stakes faced by China's upper class — caught up in the strategic competition between two superpowers.
And with a second Trump administration, China is on guard for further crackdowns on platforms that expand its soft power abroad.
Persistent economic strain
Trump described his relationship with Xi as "good", but referred to him as "a killer" three years after his visit to Beijing.
The consequences of the US-China trade war extends beyond the initial disruptions of 2018; they have left lasting marks on China's middle class, manufacturing sector, and the Communist Party itself.
Xi may be familiar with Trump, but much of Beijing's leadership is not.
The new politburo, appointed earlier this year, has limited experience in dealing with US bureaucrats.
For them, Trump's unpredictability is a source of concern.
With former Chinese ambassador Qin Gang's mysterious demotion and disappearance from the CCP's leadership, it has also complicated decisions on China-US relations.
Middle-class Chinese, essential to China's economic resilience, continue to feel the pinch of strained relations with the US.
Their economic stability was rocked by the initial rounds of tariffs, and now, with a return of these policies, they see little respite on the horizon.
Xi's economic strategy of "dual circulation" — focusing on both domestic consumption and external trade — has yet to deliver full relief, and the growing tension in global trade only adds to their worries.
As Trump's administration refines its approach, these businesses face the difficult task of finding new markets or reducing dependency on the US altogether.
America First vs the Chinese Dream
Elon Musk's close relationship with Donald Trump may benefit his electric vehicle company Tesla.
Trump's populist slogan, Make America Great Again, resonates domestically but has repercussions far beyond US borders.
The Chinese government understands Trump's brand of economic nationalism transcends party lines in the US, with little hope that even a change in congressional leadership would ease restrictions on Chinese businesses, particularly in technology and electric vehicle exports.
Chinese car-makers export few cars to the US, having long anticipated restricted access to this market and avoided setting up export infrastructure.
The real concern is tariff impacts on car parts and tech supply chains, especially if China retaliates.
It may eventually raise prices on raw materials and auto parts, stifling the burgeoning electric vehicle industry — a threat to European car-makers in the US and Trump's high-profile supporter Elon Musk's Tesla.
A "Keep America Great!" flag at the Yiwu Wholesale Market in China.
This bipartisan hostility in the US marks a challenging landscape for Xi's Chinese Dream.
Even countries like Australia are affected by the ripple effects, potentially being caught up in a new wave of geopolitical rivalry that goes beyond traditional power paradigms.
In Yiwu, a microcosm of the broader uncertainties surrounding China-US relations, merchants who once saw American demand as a ticket to prosperity now grapple with the precarious nature of that relationship.
As one merchant told me after Trump claimed victory: "China may withstand the pressures of a second Trump administration, but I can't."
By：ABC(责任编辑：admin)
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