Yahya Sinwar's death is Israel's biggest victory so far in the war against Hamas, but probably not the end
analysis
The Israeli military confirmed that Yahya Sinwar, their chief target for Israel since the beginning of the war, had been killed.
The killing of Hamas leader Yahya Sinwar has been inevitable since he was blamed for orchestrating the terrorist attack on Israel last October, which left 1,200 people dead.
The question now is: What will his death mean for Israel's war in Gaza?
The short-term answer may be — not much.
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu appears to still be pursuing something he calls "total victory" in a war now also being fought in Lebanon and with Iran.
"[Sinwar's death] brings the end of the war closer," he said, not that it ends the war.
Israel has long debated whether killing enemy leaders achieves longer-term strategic aims, with some senior military and intelligence figures concluding it does the opposite.
There is no doubt that those considerations were not applied to Sinwar, who was given primary blame by both Israel and the United States for the October 7 horrors.
His killing, along with other senior Hamas figures behind the attacks, gives Israel a tangible "win", as it continues to fight both Hamas in Gaza, and growing international condemnation.
What now?
Some might expect the Israeli government to use Sinwar's death as a way to claim victory and agree to a ceasefire and hostage deal.
Some 100 people are believed to be held in tunnels beneath Gaza, kidnapped from Israel on October 7.
Both Hezbollah in Lebanon and Hamas reportedly want a deal.
Sinwar was said to have taken a hard line on negotiations, insisting on conditions like a full troop withdrawal that Israel did not want to accept.
His successor, possibly his younger brother Mohammad, may decide Hamas has run out of time and options.
Israel's military and intelligence officials have apparently been urging the prime minister to sign a deal for months, and their calls will have added weight now.
Israel's government is under pressure from many civilians to finalise a deal that will free the hostages in Gaza.
But Netanyahu has also been repeatedly criticised inside Israel for adding his own unacceptable conditions to ceasefire proposals, and was accused of prevaricating months ago when Hamas indicated they were ready to sign.
The two key, far-right figures in his coalition, Itamar Ben-Gvir and Bezalel Smotrich, are both calling for the war to continue.
And Israel, despite its troops being spread across Gaza, the West Bank and southern Lebanon, has decimated the leadership of both Hamas and Hezbollah.
Its government may see no reason to stop now, even though Israel is yet to turn these military wins into political and diplomatic progress.
The unimaginable cost of one brutal year in the Middle East
It might surprise people, but Sinwar wrote a semi-autobiographical novel while in an Israeli prison.
In it, he describes the crushing nature of Israel's occupation and the failure of all but violent efforts to stop it, detailing a need to "change the equation" by forcing a decisive confrontation, an indication of the belief that led to the October 7 attacks.
While he undoubtedly shook the Middle East and renewed the international focus on the plight of Palestinians, this approach has left more than 42,000 Palestinians, 2,000 Lebanese and 1,200 Israelis dead, Gaza in ruins and the Middle East on the brink of a regional war between Israel and Iran.
The war in Gaza has killed more than 40,000 people and left thousands of children hungry.
Another surprising fact is that Sinwar, who founded Hamas's internal security unit, was not jailed for killing Israelis, but for killing four Palestinians suspected of collaborating with Israel.
He reportedly said it was acceptable for 100,000 Gazans to die if their deaths freed 100 prisoners.
Along with the celebrations in Israel, there will be Gazans experiencing some relief and hope after his killing.
The greatest thing to come from his death would be if it were the last in Gaza from this war.
By：https://www.abc.net.au/news/2024-10-18/sinwar-death-unlikely-end-of-gaza-israel-war/104488200(责任编辑：admin)
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